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Integrated risk assessment of multi-hazards in China

机译:Integrated risk assessment of multi-hazards in China

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摘要

Maps of population exposure, vulnerability and risk to natural hazards are useful tools for designing and implementing disaster risk mitigation programs in China. The ranking of provinces by relative risk to natural hazards would provide a metric for prioritizing risk management strategies. Using provinces as our study unit, from the perspectives of hazard exposure, susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacity, this study first constructed China's disaster risk index for five types of major natural hazards: earthquakes, floods, droughts, low temperatures/snow and gale/hail. Then, the relative risk level at the provincial scale in China was assessed. Finally, the hotspots with the highest hazard exposure, vulnerability and risk were identified. The results showed that high exposure was a significant risk driver in China, whereas high vulnerability, especially social vulnerability, amplified the risk levels. Similar to the population exposure to disasters, the relative risk levels in the southwestern, central and northeastern regions of China were significantly higher than those in the eastern, northern and western regions. The high-risk regions or hotspots of multi-hazards were concentrated in southern China (less-developed regions), while the low-risk regions were mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas (well-developed regions). Furthermore, a nonlinear relationship existed between the disaster risk level and poverty incidence as well as per capita GDP, demonstrating that disaster losses in middle-income areas are likely to increase if economic policies are not modified to account for the rising disaster risk. These findings further indicated that research on disaster risk should focus not only on hazards and exposure but also on the vulnerability to natural disasters. Thus, reducing vulnerability and population exposure to natural hazards would be an effective measure in mitigating the disaster risk at hotspots in China.
机译:人口暴露,脆弱性和自然灾害风险地图是在中国设计和实施减轻灾害风险计划的有用工具。通过对自然灾害的相对风险对各省进行排名将为优先考虑风险管理策略提供一个度量。本研究以省为研究单位,从灾害暴露,易感性,应对能力和适应能力的角度,首先针对五种主要自然灾害建立了中国的灾害风险指数:地震,洪水,干旱,低温/雪和大风/冰雹。然后,评估了中国省级的相对风险水平。最后,确定了危害暴露,脆弱性和风险最高的热点。结果表明,高暴露是中国的主要风险驱动因素,而高脆弱性,尤其是社会脆弱性,则放大了风险水平。与人口遭受灾害相似,中国西南,中部和东北地区的相对风险水平显着高于东部,北部和西部地区。高风险地区或多灾热点地区集中在中国南部(欠发达地区),而低风险地区则主要分布在东部沿海地区(发达地区)。此外,灾害风险水平与贫困发生率以及人均GDP之间存在非线性关系,这表明如果不修改经济政策以应对不断上升的灾害风险,中等收入地区的灾害损失可能会增加。这些发现进一步表明,关于灾害风险的研究不仅应侧重于危害和暴露,还应侧重于自然灾害的脆弱性。因此,减少脆弱性和减少人口遭受自然灾害的影响,将是减轻中国热点地区灾害风险的有效措施。

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